U.S. regulator warns prediction markets against cutting corners in event contracts

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission again issued an advisory that signals firms have been straying into cookie-cutter self-certification.

• The U.S. regulator of derivatives, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has advised prediction markets firms that they’re routinely stepping out of bounds when trying to set up large swaths of event contracts.
• The agency warned that it needs more specific information to evaluate contract submissions individually.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has claimed a role as the leading regulator of prediction markets firms run by companies such as Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket and Crypto.com, issued an advisory on Friday reminding the businesses that they shouldn't cut corners with far-ranging contract certifications meant to encompass a wide array of events.

The agency said that "broad, template-style certifications should not be submitted," marking the second time in recent months that the regulator has had to warn about overly generalized submissions.

Many of the "designated contract markets" regulated by the CFTC "continue to self-certify event contracts" (in other words, prediction market contracts) as broad templates "without supplying the terms and conditions of each proposed permutation and a concise explanation and analysis with respect to the product’s terms and conditions, the underlying commodity, and the product’s compliance," the agency said.

The regulator said skirting the process can undermine its ability to work out whether the firm "has supplied all information, explanation and analysis required" and has "adequately evaluated the settlement methodology, data sources, and core-principles compliance of all permutations of the contract."

That said, the agency explained that "closely related event contracts may be certified as a class," citing legitimate ways to make consolidated filings with shared exhibits.

The explosive growth of the event-contracts market — especially in the areas of sports bets and predicting political outcomes — is to some degree a figure-it-out-as-we-go situation, considering the relative inexperience of much of the industry and the uncertain legal footing of the CFTC.

The CFTC's status as the primary regulator of prediction markets is itself still facing some legal ambiguity that the courts are expected to work out — potentially the U.S. Supreme Court at some point. While the regulator's chairman, Mike Selig, has made it an agency priority to fight a full-throated battle in state and federal courts across the country to insist the CFTC is in sole charge of overseeing event contract platforms, a large number of states have pursued the businesses on accusations of illegal sports gambling that should be overseen by the states.

Also on Friday, the CFTC issued a notice to extend the regulatory status of Kraken's platform, the Kraken Derivatives Exchange, which has been under a "dormant" designation. The last trade was executed on that exchange in early 2025, and the CFTC's granting of the company's request means "allowing a registered entity to remain positioned for renewed activity." Kraken said it needed more time to evaluate its next steps after acquiring Bitnomial earlier this year.

Crypto Flows, Share and the Selective Rotation

Crypto Flows, Share and the Selective Rotation

Markets repositioned since June, but Binance held share (~55% user funds, ~24% spot) and drew net inflows in early July while the tracked market saw outflows.

Markets repositioned since June, but Binance held share (~55% user funds, ~24% spot) and drew net inflows in early July while the tracked market saw outflows.

Why it matters:

Markets repositioned since June, but Binance held share (~55% user funds, ~24% spot) and drew net inflows in early July while the tracked market saw outflows.

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