[Submitted on 18 Apr 2026 (v1), last revised 22 Jul 2026 (this version, v3)]

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Abstract:Early prediction of severe clinical deterioration and remaining length of stay can enable timely intervention and better resource allocation in high-acuity settings such as the ICU. This has driven the development of machine learning models that leverage continuous streams of vital signs and other physiological signals for real-time risk prediction. Despite their promise, existing methods have important limitations. Contrastive pretraining treats all patients as equally strong negatives, failing to capture clinically meaningful similarity between patients with related diagnoses. Meanwhile, downstream fine-tuning typically ignores complementary modalities such as clinical notes, which provide rich contextual information unavailable in physiological signals alone. To address these challenges, we propose OC-Distill, a two-stage framework that leverages multimodal supervision during training while requiring only vital signs at inference. In the first stage, we introduce an ontology-aware contrastive objective that exploits the ICD hierarchy to quantify patient similarity and learn clinically grounded representations. In the second stage, we fine-tune the pretrained encoder via cross-modal knowledge distillation, transferring complementary information from clinical notes into the model. Across multiple ICU prediction tasks on MIMIC, OC-Distill demonstrates improved label efficiency and achieves state-of-the-art performance among methods that use only vital signs at inference.

Submission history

From: Zhongyuan Liang [view email]
[v1] Sat, 18 Apr 2026 07:01:28 UTC (266 KB)
[v2] Fri, 3 Jul 2026 21:31:26 UTC (274 KB)
[v3] Wed, 22 Jul 2026 04:41:16 UTC (279 KB)