[Submitted on 16 Jul 2026 (v1), last revised 23 Jul 2026 (this version, v3)]

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Abstract:Equilibrium analysis of urban mobility systems is formulated in a high-dimensional indicator space, whilst data availability varies sharply across cities and disruption contexts. This paper gives a formal treatment of that mismatch. It presents a dynamic multi-layer equilibrium attractor for disrupted urban mobility, in which a fast performance layer relaxes towards an indicator-dependent target, a slow strategic layer supplies a joint traffic, modal and learning fixed point, and antifragility is classified through a statistical decision rule on the post-to-baseline performance ratio. It then characterises when a lower-dimensional indicator projection is faithful to this equilibrium structure, establishing four results: conditions for exact and approximate projectability of the attractor with an explicit error bound; preservation of the coupled two-layer fixed point up to a contraction boundary; the retained Fisher information and decision power of any indicator support under a measurement model on observable urban indicators; and a one-sided restoration-time bias, whereby reduced monitoring can only understate recovery duration. A simulation study on three stylised pilot-city configurations verifies each result, and shows that two observable channels suffice for the candidate classification target where the indicator catalogue permits. The framework gives city authorities a principled basis for deciding which indicators must be maintained.

Submission history

From: Ali Ghoroghi [view email]
[v1] Thu, 16 Jul 2026 10:31:07 UTC (40 KB)
[v2] Tue, 21 Jul 2026 19:10:54 UTC (44 KB)
[v3] Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:03:57 UTC (45 KB)