比特币正接近富达自2015年起追踪的幂律支撑线

该集团全球宏观主管Jurien Timmer将其称为积累区，但指出目前仍缺乏反弹催化剂。

(Shutterstock/Jonathan Weiss, modified by CoinDesk)
  • 比特币正接近长期使用的幂律价格模型下方的支撑线，价格约为58,000美元，表明其已接近历史性的积累区间。
  • 衡量比特币在趋势线下方的偏离程度以及相对于黄金的表现指标，已跌至2018年和2022年低点以来的水平，但富达的Jurrien Timmer尚未宣布触底。
  • Timmer预计，在缺乏流动性催化剂的情况下，比特币可能在支撑位附近横盘数月，并指出投机资金已从比特币转向黄金，目前又流向半导体股。

富达全球宏观主管Jurrien Timmer表示，比特币正逐渐接近他多年来一直用于追踪比特币的模型底部边缘。

该模型为幂律模型，它将比特币的全部价格历史绘制在对数图表上，图表由三条曲线限定——上方阻力线、中间趋势线，以及自2015年以来每一次重大底部都被触及的下方支撑线。

在Timmer最新的图表中，支撑线位于约58,000美元附近，而比特币当前价格约为62,700美元，正逐步接近该线。

(Jurrien Timmer/Fidelity)

下方面板是他预期出现积累的区域。它追踪比特币相对于幂律趋势线的偏离程度，该差距已达到负56%，图表将其标记为积累区，这一水平与2018年和2022年的低点一致。比特币对黄金比率的52周读数也同样下跌至约负100%。

Timmer尚未宣布触底。他表示，推动比特币去年突破120,000美元的投机溢价已基本消失，全球货币供应增长正在放缓，在流动性恢复之前，他看不到任何逆转的催化剂。

不过，他的判断是比特币可以在支撑线附近盘整数月，而非快速反弹。

快钱已经撤离。Timmer指出，资金已从比特币转向黄金，再从黄金转向半导体股，而半导体股正是当前资金追逐的方向。

Digital Assets: Quarterly Review and Outlook Q2

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Digital Assets: Quarterly Review and Outlook Q2

Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.

Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.

Why it matters:

Digital assets posted a third consecutive quarter of losses in Q2 2026, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market, as institutional capital rotated into AI equities and Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest quarterly outflow since launch. Our report examines what drove the divergence, where structural adoption continued regardless, and what Q3 signals to watch.

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